A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
